tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871003.post112532486833877132..comments2023-11-03T04:39:50.760-05:00Comments on Galley Slaves: Yearning for Dust-Bowl Days--Updated!Jonathan V. Lasthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17426165197358366129noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871003.post-1125431152521371842005-08-30T14:45:00.000-05:002005-08-30T14:45:00.000-05:00You have obviously never been to Phoenix. 4 millio...You have obviously never been to Phoenix. <BR/><BR/>4 million people, and not enough water to expand any more (though they keep trying).AnarchAngelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06447178964096399015noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871003.post-1125380403817371172005-08-30T00:40:00.000-05:002005-08-30T00:40:00.000-05:00A friend tried to buy a house in Green Valley, AZ....A friend tried to buy a house in Green Valley, AZ. The price went up and the construction time went from 3 months to a year, because the labor went to Las Vegas where wages were higher. No labor, no house. Lowered supply, but still high demand.<BR/><BR/>There can be many factors affecting the price. Just because a given property sold new for $25,000 in 1960 says nothing about the cost pressures or desireability issues in the ensuing 45 years. Land may be plentiful but the regulatory requirements can drive costs, and prices, to absurd levels.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871003.post-1125353868646698332005-08-29T17:17:00.000-05:002005-08-29T17:17:00.000-05:00I'm voting for "bubble," since bizarro markets (ye...I'm voting for "bubble," since bizarro markets (yes, it's vaguely proximate to NoCal & Portland/Seattle money, but please) like Boise are hot. See Clayton Cramer's blog for details on Boise:<BR/><BR/>http://www.claytoncramer.com/weblog/blogger.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871003.post-1125340053651024822005-08-29T13:27:00.000-05:002005-08-29T13:27:00.000-05:00It is supply and demand and I think that I can giv...It is supply and demand and I think that I can give some insight.<BR/>Most of the "hot" markets are places in which people are moving to and the supply of housing is not equal to the number of people who want to move there.<BR/>Take Las Vegas. Big numbers of California people desiring to move there for it's lower taxes. They are flush with cash since their houses in Cal have appreciated due to the restrictions in building, etc.<BR/>In Florida, it is European money (majority of it from Germany), looking for a place to invest since who the heck wants to invest in Germany (or any of the "old Europe" countries).<BR/>It takes time to build no matter how much land is available. And, if you are a smart builder, you do not want to build unless you can be sure that you have a reasonable probability of selling out.<BR/>Now, I am not saying that things will not equal out - they will when that last high rise in Las Vegas is the one that cannot be filled since everyone who wants to move there has done so already - but there is some logic to the increase in house pricing.<BR/>Would I treat my house like a piece of commercial real estate by taking out all of the equity to distibute to my partners? No. It's not my idea of the best use for my money.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871003.post-1125336782330079562005-08-29T12:33:00.000-05:002005-08-29T12:33:00.000-05:00I think it's ok to have a manageable equity line o...I think it's ok to have a manageable equity line of credit for emergencies, but it strikes me as incredibly imprudent to use your home equity as a checking account for all kinds of consumer purchases. Home equity is a moving target, and I've known people who have seen their equity vanish due to changes in market conditions, and have actually been out of pocket on the sale of their homes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871003.post-1125332641804626662005-08-29T11:24:00.000-05:002005-08-29T11:24:00.000-05:00To take issue with what anonymous said above, livi...To take issue with what anonymous said above, living in the Phoenix area we are seeing a major spike in housing prices and I guarantee you that houses are going up incredibly fast here.<BR/><BR/>No capped supply here- there are some unique regional factors which may be responsible for driving the boom but that just makes it more bubblishAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871003.post-1125332085265964022005-08-29T11:14:00.000-05:002005-08-29T11:14:00.000-05:00The self-serving smart-mouthiness of those two ana...The self-serving smart-mouthiness of those two analysts struck me too when I read that article yesterday. But in fairness to the reporter who wrote it, he framed their remarks very effectively in the context.<BR/><BR/>As it happens, my mortgage is only for about 22 percent of the current value of my home, while I make a just-living ghost-writing and free-lancing. All that equity beckons like one the Sirens: it is undeniable.Jay D. Homnickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14714671338316275833noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871003.post-1125331662509558372005-08-29T11:07:00.000-05:002005-08-29T11:07:00.000-05:00No offense, but the laws of supply and demand are ...No offense, but the laws of supply and demand are very much at the source of the real-estate boom. Look at the areas that are experiencing the biggest booms: dense urban areas and the surrounding suburbs. The supply of homes is in limited quantities due to strict zoning regulations that keep builders from erecting more homes. At the same time those areas are seeing huge influxes of immigration. Increased demand, capped supply, higher costs. It's the same reason why you can check out real estate in Raleigh, NC and notice that it's barely moved over the past 5 years. There is basically an unlimited supply of land to build on and homes are going up incredibly fast. Same with Salt Lake City, UT. The market is overpriced, but it's hardly a bubble that will lead to any sort of serious crash.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871003.post-1125327336362850482005-08-29T09:55:00.000-05:002005-08-29T09:55:00.000-05:00Peace of mind is a great equalizerPeace of mind is a great equalizerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com