Losing New Jersey?

Could things be going so bad for the Kerry campaign that even New Jersey, considered a Democratic lock in this election cycle, is now up for grabs? According to the latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll, John Kerry leads George Bush among likely voters by a slim margin of 43 percent to 41 percent. Among registered voters, the margin is only slightly larger, with Kerry leading Bush 43 percent to 39 percent. Compare this with a month ago, when Kerry led Bush by a whopping 53 percent to 33 percent.

With the Kerry camp now devoting most of its resources to battleground states like Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, and with many New Jerseyans upset with the antics of Democratic governor James McGreevey, it seems the Garden State would be ripe for a Republican upset. But high-level sources in the Bush campaign say they are still reluctant to spend more money and time here, as opposed to, say, Missouri and Wisconsin--although New Jersey has more electoral votes (15) than either of those two states (11 and 10, respectively).

If Bush wins in New Jersey, it will be the first time a Republican has taken the state since his father beat that other Massachusetts liberal back in 1988.