The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Bush leading John Kerry by one percentage point among likely voters, 47 percent to 46 percent in a three-way race with Ralph Nader (who garners 2 percent). In a two-way race, Kerry just barely beats Bush, 49 percent to 48 percent. Another poll by WABC in New York actually shows the president ahead by four points. Democrats say they’re not worried. The Bush campaign, which earlier expressed reluctance to make a play here, recently dispatched Laura Bush to rally supporters in the Garden State. If the president took the time for just one visit, he could turn the tide on this increasingly left-leaning state--and earning its coveted 15 electoral votes (more than in Wisconsin or Iowa or Missouri). Then again, if Kerry stumped here alongside the ever-popular governor James McGreevey, Bush may win it in a landslide.
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