The shifting sand? My friend Hugh Hewitt has been pretty confident of a big Bush win since at least the Boston convention. Now he's reporting that, "Second-hand from the Bush-Cheney bigs: Closer than they'd have liked, but the president will win. Today's undecideds breaking for the president." Does he know something we don't?

Dept. of Pots and Kettles: Didn't I also predict a big Bush win? Yes! I believe the spread I predicted was 8 points. In my defense, the useless, baseless theory I've been pimping for weeks has been that someone would win big, but that I wasn't sure who. With a gun to my head, I went with Bush at the last minute. But that doesn't mean I would be surprised if Kerry wins. (And if Kerry wins big, I could still be 1/2 right!)

Update: If Hugh starts talking about the importance of holding a Republican majority in the Senate later tonight, then it might be time for panic.