6 hours ago
Thursday, October 28, 2004
Bush by 8? Are you nuts?
Perhaps. My election predictions are up now. Before anyone emails telling me I'm crazy and in the tank for Bush, let me say (1) I may be crazy; (2) I certainly might be wrong; (3) Whatever the case, this isn't wishful thinking on my part.
Posted by Jonathan V. Last at 2:19 PM
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Nice spread of predictions among the WS staff. I hope Jonathan's take is accurate, esp. in the Senate.
What's with Victorino's pessimism? My God, Man. Kerry victorious AND the Dems take the Senate... I don't even want to think about it.
Both Polipundit and The Horserace Blog have determined that there are really only 3 polsters that have a measure of legitimacy: Time, Battleground and Gallup. If you give these more weight than, say, The Ipso AP poll and Zogby, the latter although very accurate in 1996 and probably the best in 2000, is nonetheless today laced with a virulent bias, then it ought to be Bush by about 5 -- I think Fred Barnes has it just about right: Bush 52% - Kerry 47%
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